By Brendan Ulmer
Ulmer Uninterrupted
The fantasy football season is winding down. I have clinched the top seed in my league’s playoff, sporting a robust 12-2 record, and I’ve decided I’m the favorite to win the $200 championship prize.
Even in such an unimportant, goofy hobby there are a lot of transferable lessons to be learned. If I was smart, I would sit on these lessons and allow myself to skip unimpeded into the playoffs year after year, but alas, it is the holiday season and I’m feeling generous, and I hope you are able to use my secret sauce to find success in your fantasy football endeavors.
Tip No. 1: Be patient
In the NFL, as in most other jobs, it takes some time for new players to really get going. I was able to scoop up multiple highly productive players this season from the league’s waiver wire and free agent pool. Why had they been cast aside from their previous teams? They weren’t performing quickly enough.
The performance of players varies week to week, and performance in one week isn’t exactly indicative of future performance.
This is especially true of rookies. It usually takes a couple weeks, at bare minimum, for rookie skill players to get completely involved in their teams offensive schemes. Be very hesitant to give up on your rookies, NFL players peak relatively early compared to their counterparts in the NBA and MLB, so what waits for you on the other side of that first-few-week lull is very likely one of your best players by the end of the season.
Tip No. 2: Trust a player’s body of work
The first player I picked in this season’s draft was Derrick Henry. For those who are unfamiliar, Henry’s career has been so long and illustrious that his nickname is “King Henry”.
When I picked him, I knew the odds were very high that Henry would experience some regression in his production this season. Henry is 31 years old, well past the average sell-by date for an NFL running back. He was also coming off of a stellar 2024-2025 season where he put up 2114 scrimmage yards and 18 touchdowns. While such a season is certainly a positive indicator for a player’s quality, a ceiling that high is going to be nearly impossible for a player to reach in later seasons.
Henry’s first game of the season started off great. He ran for 169 yards and two touchdowns before, ultimately, making a 4th quarter fumble that cost his Ravens the game. What ensued was four straight weeks of dud performances. The Ravens had reined in his role in the offense pretty severely, and when they were giving him the ball, he just didn’t look like his old self.
However, I never lost faith in him, he never once saw my bench, and frankly I never thought about putting him there. When a player has proven himself over the course of eight years to be a player worthy of the nickname “King,” as Henry has, you give him a 200-foot leash.
While Henry is certainly not going to match his 2024–2025 season, he has still been one of the best running backs in the league this year, and a huge reason why we secured the top seed.
Tip No. 3: Make a comprehensive spreadsheet of the top 300 players, sorted by position, that includes passing and scrimmage yards, as well as rushing, receiving and passing touchdowns
Now, unfortunately for everyone, this is probably the most important tip. This step is what gives me the cushion of player depth that allows me to be patient with players’ development, and trust that established-but-struggling players will eventually turn it around.
Another thing, you’re going to want to include the players’ age, so you can get a basic idea of what their skill progression (or regression) might look like that season. You’re also going to want to put where they are on their teams depth chart so you can be sure your player is actually going to get enough chances to produce for your squad.
I use Google Sheets, but Microsoft Excel certainly works as well.
Happy spreadsheeting!
Brendan Ulmer is a reporter for The Hutchinson Tribune. He can be reached at:
brendan@hutchtribune.com.